The time to make 2012 predictions is in 2011 and that’s what I did.  So how did those 2012 mobile predictions fare?  A mid-year review scored them as 2 good, 5 up for grabs, 1 not likely and 2 wrong.  Let’s get the final score.

(1) More double-digit percent-of-workforce layoffs at Nokia and RIM.


(2) RIM is acquired by either a private equity group or a carrier.

Nope, did not happen.  For bankruptcy or glory, RIM is heading forward on its own.  At least that was true in 2012.

(3) Apple kicks out Intel from its lower end laptops.

No.  This turned out to be a year, perhaps two, early.

(4) Intel licenses ARM and starts mass manufacturing ARM CPUs.

No.  Intel has not capitulated yet, but ARM is definitely in ascendancy.

(5) Microsoft launches Windows 8 on tablets only.

I’m going to take this one as a yes.  Microsoft did debut Windows 8 on their Surface RT tablets to a packed press event last June.  That debut, like this prediction, showed the importance of mobile has finally been internalized by the behemoth at Redmond, Washington.

(6) Google’s acquisition of Motorola achieves a patent armistice.

Nope, no way, nuh-uh, wrong.  The lawsuits and bickering has increased if anything and will go on and on, unfortunately.  However Apple may be learning the hard way that even courts cannot control markets.

(7) Nokia loses worldwide dominance of mobile devices to Samsung.

Yes, Samsung is the new 800 pound tech gorilla.

(8) Apple introduces a low priced iPhone for the rest of the world.

No, did not happen and Android has risen to 72% of global smartphone marketshare as a result.

(9) If Obama loses, Verizon will try to acquire Sprint

(9a) There will be no major carrier consolidation in 2012.

Yes there were no major moves in 2012.  T-Mobile did takeover MetroPCS, but this is a small pickup of 9 million subscribers to their approximately 150 million subscribers.

(10) Google will acquire Foursquare

No, but unfortunately for both Foursquare investors and employees Google is the only company big enough and relevant enough to buy them.

So the grand total is 4 right and 6 wrong, great for a baseball batting average, but not much else.  Of course some of these predictions might be recyclable for a year or two yet to come.  Yesterday’s premature prediction can be tomorrow’s incredible insight.


One Response to “Give thanks for predictions that come true”

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