Anti-PredictionsHere’s how my 2015 anti-predictions did.  An Anti-Prediction is something that I predict won’t happen.  You can read about all my Anti-Predictions for 2015 here.

(1) No Yahoo spending spree (Yahoo hoards its cash).

Yes.  Yahoo is flush from the Alibaba IPO and is looking to dump the rest of the company and only hoard its cash.

(2) No delivery by drone.

Yes.  Amazon says they’re still working on it, but you didn’t see a drone buzzing at your door yet.

(3) No 5G replacement for LTE or WiFi.

Yes.  WiFi is still the fast lane for wireless connectivity.

(4) No growth in smartphone screen size.

Yes.  Six inches has reached the limit of our pockets.

(5) No rise in e-book prices.

Yes.  The Amazon-Hachette dispute didn’t lower e-book prices, but Hachette didn’t succeed in raising them either.  Hachette was just playing defense for the industry and did prevent further price erosion.

(6) No Tizen adoption.

Yes.  It’s still an Android world for open systems and an iOS system for Cupertino zealots.

(7) No Snapchat IPO.

Yes.  Snapchat is still trying to justify all the VC money dumped into it.

(8) No smartphone OS marketshare rearrangement.

Yes.  Last year it was Android 84%, iOS 12%, Windows 3%.  In 2015 it’s Android 83%, iOS 14%, Windows 3%.

(9) No Google Glass for the masses.

Yes.  In fact Google has suspended Glass likely due to the social pushback it got for being sensed as a kind of surveillance mechanism.


So the tally is 9/9 = 100% anti-correct.  I’m much better at predicting what won’t happen than what will happen.  All of my 2015 anti-predictions didn’t happen.


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