What is an anti-prediction? It’s something that won’t happen and here are 9 things that won’t happen in 2015.

(1) No Yahoo spending spree (Yahoo hoards its cash).

Fresh from gaining over $9 billion from selling its Alibaba stake in the Alibaba IPO, CEO Marissa Mayer promised to return $5 billion back to shareholders in the form of dividends or stock buybacks.  That still leaves more than $4 billion for Mayer to go on a shopping spree with.  She won’t.  Yes she’ll spend a few pennies, maybe some dimes, but no billion dollar acquisitions. 

(2) No delivery by drone.

Despite Amazon’s promise of drone delivery in our future, it won’t be here in 2015.

(3) No 5G replacement for LTE or WiFi.

4G is 100 megabits per second for your mobile device and 1 gigabit per second data transfer for your fixed device.  5G has to be faster than this.  WiFi can go 150 megabits per second and still falls into the 4G category.  Right now we’ve reached a plateau of bandwidth with no technology emerging in 2015 as a successor.

(4) No growth in smartphone screen size.

Six inches is enough.  We’ve been seeing screen size inflation where screens have trended to the six inch size.  The new iPhone 6 Plus boasts a 5.5 inch screen size, while the larger Samsung Galaxy Note 4 phablet has a 5.7 inch screen size.  We’ve finally reached the limit.  Screen sizes won’t grow.  Phablets are close to 6 inch screen sizes and smartphones to 5 inch screen sizes.  Both will finally stay at those sizes.

(5) No rise in e-book prices.

The Amazon-Hachette dispute pitted a publisher (Hachette) against an e-book maker and publisher (Amazon).  Amazon wants to keep e-book prices low so users will love their Kindle e-reader.  Hachette does not want to cannibalize expensive print book sales to cheap e-book sales.  I see Hachette raising prices of their e-books on the Kindle, but not other publishers.  Raising e-book prices will also reduce sales of said e-books, although Hachette’s goals is to prevent potential print buyers from buying a cheaper e-book instead.  Ultimately Hachette will fail in its quest for higher e-book prices and competitors will force e-book prices to remain roughly where they are.

(6) No Tizen adoption.

Tizen is an open source Linux-based operating system and software suite.  Intel has put a big effort into supporting Tizen.  Samsung used Tizen for its latest Galaxy Gear smartwatch.  Both Intel and Samsung, hardware manufacturers, would like to see open source software become popular as they chafe at having their hardware fate in the hands of Google and Android.  Too bad.  Tizen is just too far behind to catch up and there’s no incentive for developers to adopt it.  Android will continue to be the gateway for Intel, Samsung and other hardware manufacturers to consumers.

(7) No Snapchat IPO.

Late in 2013 both Facebook and Google offered up to $4 billion to buyout Snapchat.  Feeling their oats Snapchat turned both down.  Snapchat is said to have about 100 million users.  Turning down the big money from other big companies really only leaves Snapchat with one option: make an IPO of its own.  The problem for Snapchat is that the text messaging bubble is about to burst.  Facebook hasn’t quite cornered the text message market with about one billion users (500 million Facebook Messenger and 500 million Whatsapp users), but it has become the 800 pound gorilla of text messaging.

How can Snapchat generate revenue to paint a rosy picture to investors?  It has two choices: (1) charge users or (2) show users ads and sell the ads.  I don’t see Snapchat charging users and I’m sure users would jump to Facebook messaging if it did.  That leaves ads and Snapchat is starting to introduce ads.  Can a text messaging service make money off ads?  Yes and Facebook will, but Snapchat will be hard-pressed to demonstrate worth for a large IPO valuation off ad revenue in 2015.  Turning down $4 billion from Google sets the bar for what a Snapchat IPO has to achieve and there just won’t be nearly enough ad revenue to justify that size of an IPO.  $4 billion over 100 million users = $40 per user and Snapchat won’t generate $40 of revenue per user for quite some time.

In the end Snapchat may really regret turning down that $4 billion buyout offer from Google.

(8) No smartphone OS marketshare rearrangement.

Today it’s:  Android 84%, iOS 12%, Windows 3%.  This will stay the same plus or minus 5%.

(9) No Google Glass for the masses.

Google Glass fascinated tech audiences everywhere when it was introduced, but there was a backlash. Do we really want someone taking our photo, recording us on video or looking us up online while we’re chatting with them?  Bars began banning Glass.  Google has expanded who can buy Glass, but kept the price at a whopping $1500 despite a sub-$200 parts price list.  Clearly Glass could be an ubiquitous $300 tech toy for all of us, but one that would use a vast amount of cloud services.  Is that why Google isn’t pushing it?  Don’t know, but I do know we won’t see Glass or a capable imitation at an affordable price in 2015.

The press is also becoming skeptical of Google Glass.

So there you have nine things that won’t happen in 2015.

2 Responses to “Anti-predictions for 2015”

  1. [...] Anti-predictions for 2015 [...]

  2. [...] Here’s how my 2015 anti-predictions did.  An Anti-Prediction is something that I predict won’t happen.  You can read about all my Anti-Predictions for 2015 here. [...]

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