How did my predictions for 2013 hold up? Here’s the rundown.
(1) Android smartphone marketshare exceeds 80%
Yep. This did happen in 2013-Q2. You can read about it here.
(2) Nokia brings 41 megapixel PureView camera to its Windows Phone Lumia
Yep. Despite my concerns about Nokia putting this prediction in peril, it was too obvious a task not to do.
(3) Instagram continues its mobile rise and Facebook treads mobile water
Nope. Instagram has kept on innovating and growing, recently copying Vine on the ability to post short video clips, but Facebook did an about-face, dumped its slow HTML5-based Android app and went full bore native. Not that even that mattered. Facebook has over ONE BILLION users and is likely the most used mobile app anywhere. So while I can say that yes, Instagram has continued to add users and features, Facebook did not tread mobile water. Facebook adopted mobile whole hog and is even kicking Google’s butt in mobile ads as a percentage of ad revenue. This prediction was half-right, but all wrong.
(4) RIM delivers on BB10, but fades into obscurity
Yep. The only question now is who will buy the wreckage.
(5) Apple launches AirBook Jr. with ARM processor
Nope. There was an iPad Air, but no keyboard. Apple is still following Steve Jobs dictum that tablets don’t need keyboards. Also there was no downsizing of the MacBook Air with Mac OS X ported to ARM.
(6) Samsung Galaxy S4 will be the top selling phone
Yep. I didn’t know what this phone would be at the end of 2012, but I was dead on right. The S4 sold 4 million in 4 days and 10 million in 27 days making it the fastest selling smartphone in Samsung’s history and also the fastest selling Android device in history. There have been 40 million S4s sold as of this writing. And yes, the S4 outsold the iPhone 5 as you can read here:
(7) Intel buys Broadcom
Nope. Intel got new CEO Brian Krzanich as Paul Otellini was edged out for failing to make any progress in mobile. Intel did buy a division of Fujitsu for their LTE technology (Fujitsu Semicondutor Wireless Products based in Arizona). I still think Broadcom would have been a better albeit more expensive acquisition. Intel is viewing mobile as acquiring the correct bill-of-materials without thinking about sales forces and chutzpah, so while the acquisition is progress, it still is a technology in search of a sales visionary.
(8) Large screen innovation yields to small screen innovation
Yep. Can you say Google Glass or Samsung Galaxy Gear? We didn’t see the Apple iWatch — yet. Wearables are the new frontier for tech and they will be smaller.
(9) Yahoo launches branded device(s)
Nope. New Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer has bought up content, including Tumblr for one billion dollars, but not produced a game changer for the organization. Yahoo is still just getting by and even trending down slightly. I saw branded devices as a way to change the state-of-play, but it didn’t happen.
(10) Windows 8 is over, expect Windows 9 to be announced in 2013
Yep. Windows 8.1 was announced and arrived. It wasn’t called “9”, but it was the next Windows.
(11) Trouble at Qualcomm with big stock sell-off
Nope. As of this writing QCOM is close to where it started the year at, so no rise, but no big sell-off either. I still think increasing verticalization trends in the big players bode ill for Qualcomm and Intel is now poised to also give them trouble, but the market has also been expanding with tablets being the golden devices everyone wants. Anyway this does match my own personal record at never being able to predict the stock market.
(12) Robert X. Cringely makes a prediction
Yep. Back at the start of 2012 Robert X Cringley was looking to turn off his blog and made prediction 8: No more predictions. Here it is:
Of course that wouldn’t last as his blog is a great place to promote his other works. However Bob did make a prediction which you can read at:
So the tally is Yep, Yep, Nope, Yep, Nope, Yep, Nope, Yep, Nope, Yep, Nope, Yep which comes down to 7 Yep and 5 Nope. So 7 out of 12 predictions came true in 2013.
Keep track of all things mobile on Twitter at @pdxmobile and keep an eye out for year end predictions for 2014 coming soon.